Market insights snapshot - United States of America

Market trends

• Arrivals for the 12 months to November 2024 were 701,074 or 85.6 per cent of 2019 levels. Arrivals are up 9.2 per cent the 12 months to Nov 2023
• Arrivals for holiday were 87.4 per cent of 2019 levels. Arrivals for holiday are up 19 per cent on the 12 months to Nov 2023
• Spend levels for the 12 months to September 2024 are 110 per cent of 2019 levels
• Market recovery, like many of our markets has plateaued over recent months, however notably, recovery has been weaker in the winter months. Average recovery for the April to September period was 79 per cent compared to 90 per cent for the October to March period
• From an air capacity perspective seat capacity for March 2025 is set to be 86 per cent of March 2019 levels, with nine per cent of flight frequencies returning. By December 2025 the United States are set to be back close to 100 per cent of aviation capacity. This will be buoyed by continued capacity additions from Qantas from August this year which will see the A380 return to the Dallas to Sydney route for the first time since the pandemic. With this capacity, air fares, whilst still above 2019 levels, are continuing to moderate.
• Despite broader predictions the US Economy continues to be robust. The outgoing administration has left an economy with continued decreasing levels of inflation and high employment which is helping to bolster consumer confidence. Underlying economic factors have caused the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a full one per cent in the last quarter in a bid to stimulate further spending whilst ensuring any sudden spend increases do not help drive inflation back upwards. Inflation now sits under three per cent.
• In 2025, it is expected that both leisure and business travel in the USA is expected to grow one per cent and two per cent respectively to reach $1,000bn and reach and exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time.

Buyer snapshot

This year there is a total of 77 buyers attending representing 54 buyer organisation this includes delegates as part of the ATE Luxe Program. Many are returning buyers.  

• Classic Vacations are returning to ATE for the first time for many years. Classic have not offered their own Australia program since 2018 and are now engaged to re-establish an Australia Program. Yvette Bousard is their product manager, but Brea Harris will be attending as a first time attendee to ATE. Their President is also engaged to bring back Australia to their portfolio have attended the WTTC in Perth and will be back in Australia in February for the Virtuoso Forum.
• Delta Vacations have a continued interest in growing their program offering to Australia. Delta Airlines recently announced that they would start flying between Los Angeles and Melbourne from Dec 2025, in addition to their existing services to Sydney and Brisbane so they will be looking to expand their product offering.
• A general highlight for our Luxe Buyers. We have a bumper delegation this year of 21 delegates. These are mostly Independent Contractors affiliated with our key preferred luxury consortia partners at Virtuoso and Signature Travel Network. Outside of these I wanted to specifically highlight Fora, a new fast growing independent host agency who has 4 delegates on the Luxe program this year.

Consumer trends

• Consumer confidence and sentiment has generally been in the rise during 2024 however the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index both declined in December and January respectively. This is being driven by a less positive outlook for business, labour and income in the next six months. Sentiment was likely to be wavering post election and before the new Administration takes office which is the latest data we have. 
• In the USA we see a continued growth of the FIT market in general and a move away from large group touring. Where group tours to exist there are becoming smaller in size. As we look forward into 2025, there is a growing trend for solo travel which is expected to grow by 9.1 per cent CAGR until 2030, with women solo travellers driving this growth (71 per cent of solo travellers are women). Cool-Cations (trips to destinations that are cooler) is also a growing, along with shifts to more shoulder and off peak travel to avoid impacts of climate change. Virtuoso reports that 76 per cent of advisors say their clients now favour destinations with more moderate weather. This presents a seasonality opportunity for Australia.